The Game Console Market Awaits a Significant Decline in 2026
Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence report a critical drop in home console sales — by 19.5% compared to last year. According to the forecast, only 33.9 million console units will be shipped in 2026, which significantly differs from the 13.5% growth (to 42.1 million units) seen in 2025. The main reason for this sharp reversal is higher hardware prices due to the global crisis of RAM and storage shortages.
Impact of Sony's Price Hikes on PS5
The PlayStation 5 is suffering the most from the pricing policy. In April 2026, Sony raised prices for all existing console models, which impacted forecasts. If 17.1 million PS5 units were shipped in 2025, that number will fall to 13.2 million units in 2026.
The base PS5 model increased from $550 to $650, the digital version from $500 to $600, and the premium Pro model from $750 to $900. For consumers, this is particularly burdensome, considering the device has already been on the market for six years. Analysts note that even the anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 may not be a strong enough motivating factor to purchase a console at the new prices.
Record Drop for Xbox and the Future of Project Helix
The situation with Xbox consoles is even worse. Last year, Microsoft sold only 3.2 million Xbox Series X|S units — the lowest figure in the series' history. In the first quarter of 2026, quarterly sales dropped below 500,000 units for the first time. For 2026, an incredibly low figure of 2.5 million consoles is projected.
Analysts explain this by a combination of factors: an uneven first-party game library, a failed subscription strategy that didn't stimulate sales, and pricing — the Xbox Series X now costs $100 more than a standard PS5. The upcoming Project Helix console, which will be compatible with both Xbox and PC games, will be even more expensive.
Nintendo Switch 2 as a Light at the End of the Tunnel
In contrast to its competitors, the Nintendo Switch 2 shows more optimistic forecasts. S&P expects 17.1 million sales in 2026, comparable to the second year of the original Switch and equal to the Wii's figures. However, there are still problems here — the price increased by $50, and there is no clear "killer app" for the near future. For example, Pokemon Wind and Waves is only planned for late 2027.
Long-Term Forecasts and Conditions for Recovery
S&P predicts a further decline to 27.1 million units in 2027, but a gradual recovery to 37.4 million by 2030. The key condition for this is the easing of the component crisis by 2028, which will allow Sony and Microsoft to launch next-generation consoles in the $600-$800 price range.
Analysts also point to issues such as outdated hardware that is too expensive for the average buyer, a limited offering of games outside of a few major releases, and a macroeconomic environment that prevents significant price reductions.